Latest articles of Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications
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https://www.vmsta.org/images/logos/publications/vmsta.pnghttps://www.vmsta.org/images/logos/publications/vmsta.pngLatest articles of Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications
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enWed, 25 Apr 2018 15:11:00 +0300<![CDATA[Exponential bounds for the tail probability of the supremum of an inhomogeneous random walk]]>
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/110
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/110Let $\{\xi _{1},\xi _{2},\dots \}$ be a sequence of independent but not necessarily identically distributed random variables. In this paper, the sufficient conditions are found under which the tail probability $\mathbb{P}(\sup _{n\geqslant 0}{\sum _{i=1}^{n}}\xi _{i}>x)$ can be bounded above by $\varrho _{1}\exp \{-\varrho _{2}x\}$ with some positive constants $\varrho _{1}$ and $\varrho _{2}$. A way to calculate these two constants is presented. The application of the derived bound is discussed and a Lundberg-type inequality is obtained for the ultimate ruin probability in the inhomogeneous renewal risk model satisfying the net profit condition on average. PDFXML]]>Let $\{\xi _{1},\xi _{2},\dots \}$ be a sequence of independent but not necessarily identically distributed random variables. In this paper, the sufficient conditions are found under which the tail probability $\mathbb{P}(\sup _{n\geqslant 0}{\sum _{i=1}^{n}}\xi _{i}>x)$ can be bounded above by $\varrho _{1}\exp \{-\varrho _{2}x\}$ with some positive constants $\varrho _{1}$ and $\varrho _{2}$. A way to calculate these two constants is presented. The application of the derived bound is discussed and a Lundberg-type inequality is obtained for the ultimate ruin probability in the inhomogeneous renewal risk model satisfying the net profit condition on average. PDFXML]]>Dominyka Kievinaitė,Jonas ŠiaulysThu, 15 Mar 2018 00:00:00 +0200<![CDATA[On backward Kolmogorov equation related to CIR process]]>
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/109
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/109We consider the existence of a classical smooth solution to the backward Kolmogorov equation

that is, $Af(x)=\theta (\kappa -x){f^{\prime }}(x)+\frac{1}{2}{\sigma }^{2}x{f^{\prime\prime }}(x)$, $x\ge 0$ ($\theta ,\kappa ,\sigma >0$). Alfonsi [1] showed that the equation has a smooth solution with partial derivatives of polynomial growth, provided that the initial function f is smooth with derivatives of polynomial growth. His proof was mainly based on the analytical formula for the transition density of the CIR process in the form of a rather complicated function series. In this paper, for a CIR process satisfying the condition ${\sigma }^{2}\le 4\theta \kappa $, we present a direct proof based on the representation of a CIR process in terms of a squared Bessel process and its additivity property. PDFXML]]>We consider the existence of a classical smooth solution to the backward Kolmogorov equation

that is, $Af(x)=\theta (\kappa -x){f^{\prime }}(x)+\frac{1}{2}{\sigma }^{2}x{f^{\prime\prime }}(x)$, $x\ge 0$ ($\theta ,\kappa ,\sigma >0$). Alfonsi [1] showed that the equation has a smooth solution with partial derivatives of polynomial growth, provided that the initial function f is smooth with derivatives of polynomial growth. His proof was mainly based on the analytical formula for the transition density of the CIR process in the form of a rather complicated function series. In this paper, for a CIR process satisfying the condition ${\sigma }^{2}\le 4\theta \kappa $, we present a direct proof based on the representation of a CIR process in terms of a squared Bessel process and its additivity property. PDFXML]]>Vigirdas Mackevičius,Gabrielė MongirdaitėTue, 06 Mar 2018 00:00:00 +0200<![CDATA[Fractional Cox–Ingersoll–Ross process with non-zero «mean»]]>
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/108
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/108In this paper we define the fractional Cox–Ingersoll–Ross process as $X_{t}:={Y_{t}^{2}}\mathbf{1}_{\{t<\inf \{s>0:Y_{s}=0\}\}}$, where the process $Y=\{Y_{t},t\ge 0\}$ satisfies the SDE of the form $dY_{t}=\frac{1}{2}(\frac{k}{Y_{t}}-aY_{t})dt+\frac{\sigma }{2}d{B_{t}^{H}}$, $\{{B_{t}^{H}},t\ge 0\}$ is a fractional Brownian motion with an arbitrary Hurst parameter $H\in (0,1)$. We prove that $X_{t}$ satisfies the stochastic differential equation of the form $dX_{t}=(k-aX_{t})dt+\sigma \sqrt{X_{t}}\circ d{B_{t}^{H}}$, where the integral with respect to fractional Brownian motion is considered as the pathwise Stratonovich integral. We also show that for $k>0$, $H>1/2$ the process is strictly positive and never hits zero, so that actually $X_{t}={Y_{t}^{2}}$. Finally, we prove that in the case of $H<1/2$ the probability of not hitting zero on any fixed finite interval by the fractional Cox–Ingersoll–Ross process tends to 1 as $k\to \infty $. PDFXML]]>In this paper we define the fractional Cox–Ingersoll–Ross process as $X_{t}:={Y_{t}^{2}}\mathbf{1}_{\{t<\inf \{s>0:Y_{s}=0\}\}}$, where the process $Y=\{Y_{t},t\ge 0\}$ satisfies the SDE of the form $dY_{t}=\frac{1}{2}(\frac{k}{Y_{t}}-aY_{t})dt+\frac{\sigma }{2}d{B_{t}^{H}}$, $\{{B_{t}^{H}},t\ge 0\}$ is a fractional Brownian motion with an arbitrary Hurst parameter $H\in (0,1)$. We prove that $X_{t}$ satisfies the stochastic differential equation of the form $dX_{t}=(k-aX_{t})dt+\sigma \sqrt{X_{t}}\circ d{B_{t}^{H}}$, where the integral with respect to fractional Brownian motion is considered as the pathwise Stratonovich integral. We also show that for $k>0$, $H>1/2$ the process is strictly positive and never hits zero, so that actually $X_{t}={Y_{t}^{2}}$. Finally, we prove that in the case of $H<1/2$ the probability of not hitting zero on any fixed finite interval by the fractional Cox–Ingersoll–Ross process tends to 1 as $k\to \infty $. PDFXML]]>Yuliya Mishura,Anton Yurchenko-TytarenkoMon, 05 Mar 2018 00:00:00 +0200<![CDATA[Cliquet option pricing with Meixner processes]]>
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/107
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/107We investigate the pricing of cliquet options in a geometric Meixner model. The considered option is of monthly sum cap style while the underlying stock price model is driven by a pure-jump Meixner–Lévy process yielding Meixner distributed log-returns. In this setting, we infer semi-analytic expressions for the cliquet option price by using the probability distribution function of the driving Meixner–Lévy process and by an application of Fourier transform techniques. In an introductory section, we compile various facts on the Meixner distribution and the related class of Meixner–Lévy processes. We also propose a customized measure change preserving the Meixner distribution of any Meixner process. PDFXML]]>We investigate the pricing of cliquet options in a geometric Meixner model. The considered option is of monthly sum cap style while the underlying stock price model is driven by a pure-jump Meixner–Lévy process yielding Meixner distributed log-returns. In this setting, we infer semi-analytic expressions for the cliquet option price by using the probability distribution function of the driving Meixner–Lévy process and by an application of Fourier transform techniques. In an introductory section, we compile various facts on the Meixner distribution and the related class of Meixner–Lévy processes. We also propose a customized measure change preserving the Meixner distribution of any Meixner process. PDFXML]]>Markus HessMon, 12 Feb 2018 00:00:00 +0200<![CDATA[On aggregation of multitype Galton–Watson branching processes with immigration]]>
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/106
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/106Limit behaviour of temporal and contemporaneous aggregations of independent copies of a stationary multitype Galton–Watson branching process with immigration is studied in the so-called iterated and simultaneous cases, respectively. In both cases, the limit process is a zero mean Brownian motion with the same covariance function under third order moment conditions on the branching and immigration distributions. We specialize our results for generalized integer-valued autoregressive processes and single-type Galton–Watson processes with immigration as well. PDFXML]]>Limit behaviour of temporal and contemporaneous aggregations of independent copies of a stationary multitype Galton–Watson branching process with immigration is studied in the so-called iterated and simultaneous cases, respectively. In both cases, the limit process is a zero mean Brownian motion with the same covariance function under third order moment conditions on the branching and immigration distributions. We specialize our results for generalized integer-valued autoregressive processes and single-type Galton–Watson processes with immigration as well. PDFXML]]>Mátyás Barczy,Fanni K. Nedényi,Gyula PapThu, 01 Feb 2018 00:00:00 +0200<![CDATA[Confidence regions in Cox proportional hazards model with measurement errors and unbounded parameter set]]>
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/105
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/105Cox proportional hazards model with measurement errors is considered. In Kukush and Chernova (2017), we elaborated a simultaneous estimator of the baseline hazard rate $\lambda (\cdot )$ and the regression parameter β, with the unbounded parameter set $\varTheta =\varTheta _{\lambda }\times \varTheta _{\beta }$, where $\varTheta _{\lambda }$ is a closed convex subset of $C[0,\tau ]$ and $\varTheta _{\beta }$ is a compact set in ${\mathbb{R}}^{m}$. The estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. In the present paper, we construct confidence intervals for integral functionals of $\lambda (\cdot )$ and a confidence region for β under restrictions on the error distribution. In particular, we handle the following cases: (a) the measurement error is bounded, (b) it is a normally distributed random vector, and (c) it has independent components which are shifted Poisson random variables. PDFXML]]>Cox proportional hazards model with measurement errors is considered. In Kukush and Chernova (2017), we elaborated a simultaneous estimator of the baseline hazard rate $\lambda (\cdot )$ and the regression parameter β, with the unbounded parameter set $\varTheta =\varTheta _{\lambda }\times \varTheta _{\beta }$, where $\varTheta _{\lambda }$ is a closed convex subset of $C[0,\tau ]$ and $\varTheta _{\beta }$ is a compact set in ${\mathbb{R}}^{m}$. The estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. In the present paper, we construct confidence intervals for integral functionals of $\lambda (\cdot )$ and a confidence region for β under restrictions on the error distribution. In particular, we handle the following cases: (a) the measurement error is bounded, (b) it is a normally distributed random vector, and (c) it has independent components which are shifted Poisson random variables. PDFXML]]>Oksana Chernova,Alexander KukushWed, 31 Jan 2018 00:00:00 +0200<![CDATA[A moment-distance hybrid method for estimating a mixture of two symmetric densities]]>
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/104
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/104In clustering of high-dimensional data a variable selection is commonly applied to obtain an accurate grouping of the samples. For two-class problems this selection may be carried out by fitting a mixture distribution to each variable. We propose a hybrid method for estimating a parametric mixture of two symmetric densities. The estimator combines the method of moments with the minimum distance approach. An evaluation study including both extensive simulations and gene expression data from acute leukemia patients shows that the hybrid method outperforms a maximum-likelihood estimator in model-based clustering. The hybrid estimator is flexible and performs well also under imprecise model assumptions, suggesting that it is robust and suited for real problems. PDFXML]]>In clustering of high-dimensional data a variable selection is commonly applied to obtain an accurate grouping of the samples. For two-class problems this selection may be carried out by fitting a mixture distribution to each variable. We propose a hybrid method for estimating a parametric mixture of two symmetric densities. The estimator combines the method of moments with the minimum distance approach. An evaluation study including both extensive simulations and gene expression data from acute leukemia patients shows that the hybrid method outperforms a maximum-likelihood estimator in model-based clustering. The hybrid estimator is flexible and performs well also under imprecise model assumptions, suggesting that it is robust and suited for real problems. PDFXML]]>David Källberg,Yuri Belyaev,Patrik RydénThu, 18 Jan 2018 00:00:00 +0200<![CDATA[Author index]]>
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/96
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/96PDF XML]]>PDF XML]]>Fri, 29 Dec 2017 00:00:00 +0200<![CDATA[2010 Mathematics Subject Classification index]]>
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/97
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/97PDF XML]]>PDF XML]]>Fri, 29 Dec 2017 00:00:00 +0200<![CDATA[Subject index]]>
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/98
https://www.vmsta.org/journal/VMSTA/article/98PDF XML]]>PDF XML]]>Fri, 29 Dec 2017 00:00:00 +0200